Antidote for Depression.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
Winston Churchill.

"Some historians hold that history ... is just one damned thing after another."
Arnold Toynbee

A few words before we start (because the pageant can become depressing after a while.)

Nothing good ever comes of violence.” Martin Luther.

Anyone who clings to the historically untrue -- and -- thoroughly immoral doctrine that violence never solves anything I would advise to conjure up the ghosts of Napoleon Bonaparte and the Duke of Wellington and let them debate it. The ghost of Hitler would referee. Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor; and the contrary opinion is wishful thinking at its worst. Breeds that forget this basic truth have always paid for it with their lives and their freedoms."
Robert Heinlein.

In my humble opinion, both of the above statements are true and both of the above statements are false. Nothing good ever comes of violence, except a new good - years or even centuries later. And Christ, the early Christian martyrs, Gandi, and Martin Luther King have all demonstrated that there are some things you can solve - provided you don't mind a receiving a little violence yourself.

Of all the explanations for why wars start, the most concise explanation I ever heard was Margret Atwood's: "Wars happen because the ones who start them think they can win." [ and thank you, Victor Davis Hanson, for calling my attention to this quote.] I.e., get away with it. They believe there is a good, short term or long term, which they can acquire by war.

So therefore the way to prevent a war is to make it plain to an enemy that the bad of war will outweigh any possible good, short term or long term. John Adams: "I must study politics and war, that our sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy." Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus: "if you want peace, prepare for war."

But the irony of that is that preparing for war can also cause a war if the other side thinks you think you can get away with starting a war.

This is part of what caused World War I. Every government in Europe thought being armed to the teeth with the most destructive weapons possible, and allied to the hilt with other powerful nations, would prevent every other government from daring to attack. Instead, Europe became like a room full of set mousetraps waiting for the first ping-pong ball to be dropped in. Which a terrorist provided.

This Catch-22 (a phrase from novel about a war) will be the ever-reoccurring pivot on which all history will turn. The temptation to get away with going to war versus the fine line between preparing for peace and being thought to prepare for war.

Now for some goods news before we begin our pageant. According to Strategy Page, objective measures show that violence due to war has actually been declining since the end of the Cold War. Its only the greater prevalence of news reporting throughout the world and the press' need to attract eyeballs that have given us the impression that war violence is on the rise.

But why did we have a Cold War instead of a really Hot one again? Three words: mutually assured destruction. Works every time!

And so now - on with The Bloody Pageant of History!

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